A framework to guide dose & regimen strategy for clinical drug development.

Optimizing new drug therapies remains a challenge for clinical development, despite the use of ever more sophisticated quantitative methodologies. Although conceptually simple, the idea of finding the right treatment at the right dose for the right patient to ensure an appropriate balance of risks and benefits is challenging and requires a multidisciplinary approach. In this paper, we present a framework developed as a tool for organizing knowledge and facilitating collaboration in development teams.

Siponimod: Disentangling disability and relapses in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In multiple sclerosis, impact of treatment on disability progression can be confounded if treatment also reduces relapses. OBJECTIVE: To distinguish siponimod's direct effects on disability progression from those on relapses in the EXPAND phase 3 trial. METHODS: Three estimands, one based on principal stratum and two on hypothetical scenarios (no relapses, or equal relapses in both treatment arms), were defined to determine the extent to which siponimod's effects on 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression were independent of on-study relapses. RESULTS: Principal stratum analysis estimated that siponimod reduced the risk of 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression by 14%-20% and 29%-33%, respectively, compared with placebo in non-relapsing patients. In the hypothetical scenarios, risk reductions independent of relapses were 14%-18% and 23% for 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression, respectively. CONCLUSION: By controlling the confounding impact of on-study relapses on confirmed disability progression, these statistical approaches provide a methodological framework to assess treatment effects on disability progression in relapsing and non-relapsing patients. The analyses support that siponimod may be useful for treating secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in patients with or without relapses.

White matter lesion location correlates with disability in relapsing multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Lesion location is a prognostic factor of disease progression and disability accrual. OBJECTIVE: To investigate lesion formation in 11 brain regions, assess correlation between lesion location and physical and cognitive disability measures and investigate treatment effects by region. METHODS: In 2355 relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the FREEDOMS and FREEDOMS II studies, we extracted T2-weighted lesion number, volume and density for each brain region; we investigated the (Spearman) correlation in lesion formation between brain regions, studied association between location and disability (at baseline and change over 2 years) using linear/logistic regression and assessed the regional effects of fingolimod versus placebo in negative binomial models. RESULTS: At baseline, the majority of lesions were found in the supratentorial brain. New and enlarging lesions over 24 months developed mainly in the frontal and sublobar regions and were substantially correlated to pre-existing lesions at baseline in the supratentorial brain (p = 0.37-0.52), less so infratentorially (p = -0.04-0.23). High sublobar lesion density was consistently and significantly associated with most disability measures at baseline and worsening of physical disability over 24 months. The treatment effect of fingolimod 0.5 mg was consistent across the investigated areas and tracts. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the role of sublobar lesions for the accrual of disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Phase II Study of Single/Repeated Doses of Acumapimod (BCT197) to Treat Acute Exacerbations of COPD.

Mitogen-activated protein kinase p38 is a key regulator in the inflammation pathway and is activated in the lungs of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Acumapimod is a potent, selective, oral, p38 inhibitor under investigation for treatment of acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD). In this Phase II, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled dose-exploration study of acumapimod in patients with moderate or severe AECOPD (NCT01332097), patients presenting with AECOPD were randomized to receive single-dose acumapimod (20 mg or 75 mg) on Day 1, repeated single-dose acumapimod (20 mg or 75 mg) on Days 1 and 6, oral prednisone 40 mg (10 days), or placebo. Primary outcome: improvement in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) versus placebo at Day 5 (single doses) and Day 10 (repeated doses). N = 183 patients were randomized; 169 (92%) patients completed the study. Although the primary endpoint (FEV1 at Day 10) was not met (p = 0.082), there was a significant improvement in FEV1 with acumapimod repeat-dose 75 mg versus placebo at Day 8 (p = 0.022) which, though not a prespecified endpoint, was part of an overall trend. Differences at lower doses did not achieve significance. Mean change in FEV1 AUC from baseline to Day 14 in the 75 mg repeat-dose group was significantly higher versus placebo (p = 0.02), prednisone (p = 0.01), and 20 mg single-dose groups (p = 0.015) (post-hoc analysis). EXACT-PRO showed numerical differences versus placebo that did not reach significance. Acumapimod was well tolerated. In conclusion, repeated single-dose acumapimod showed a clinically relevant improvement in FEV1 over placebo at Day 8, along with consistent numerical differences in EXACT-PRO. These data can be used to determine dose regimens for a proof-of-clinical-concept trial.

Bayesian inference for a principal stratum estimand to assess the treatment effect in a subgroup characterized by postrandomization event occurrence.

The treatment effect in subgroups of patients is often of interest in randomized controlled clinical trials, as this may provide useful information on how to treat which patients best. When a specific subgroup is characterized by the absence of certain events that happen postrandomization, a naive analysis on the subset of patients without these events may be misleading. The principal stratification framework allows one to define an appropriate causal estimand in such settings. Statistical inference for the principal stratum estimand hinges on scientifically justified assumptions, which can be included with Bayesian methods through prior distributions. Our motivating example is a large randomized placebo-controlled trial of siponimod in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. The primary objective of this trial was to demonstrate the efficacy of siponimod relative to placebo in delaying disability progression for the whole study population. However, the treatment effect in the subgroup of patients who would not relapse during the trial is relevant from both a scientific and patient perspective. Assessing this subgroup treatment effect is challenging as there is strong evidence that siponimod reduces relapses. We describe in detail the scientific question of interest, the principal stratum estimand, the corresponding analysis method for binary endpoints, and sensitivity analyses. Although our work is motivated by a randomized clinical trial, the approach has broader appeal and could be adapted for observational studies.

Effective Visual Communication for the Quantitative Scientist.

Effective visual communication is a core competency for pharmacometricians, statisticians, and, more generally, any quantitative scientist. It is essential in every step of a quantitative workflow, from scoping to execution and communicating results and conclusions. With this competency, we can better understand data and influence decisions toward appropriate actions. Without it, we can fool ourselves and others and pave the way to wrong conclusions and actions. The goal of this tutorial is to convey this competency. We posit three laws of effective visual communication for the quantitative scientist: have a clear purpose, show the data clearly, and make the message obvious. A concise "Cheat Sheet," available on https://graphicsprinciples.github.io, distills more granular recommendations for everyday practical use. Finally, these laws and recommendations are illustrated in four case studies.

How can we make better graphs? An initiative to increase the graphical expertise and productivity of quantitative scientists.

Graphics are at the core of exploring and understanding data, communicating results and conclusions, and supporting decision-making. Increasing our graphical expertise can significantly strengthen our impact as professional statisticians and quantitative scientists. In this article, we present a concerted effort to improve the way we create graphics at Novartis. We provide our vision and guiding principles, before describing seven work packages in more detail. The actions, principles, and experiences laid out in this paper are applicable generally, also beyond drug development, which is our field of work. The purpose of this article is to share our experiences and help foster the use of good graphs in pharmaceutical statistics and beyond. A Graphics Principles "Cheat Sheet" is available online at https://graphicsprinciples.github.io/.

The Safety and Antiviral Activity of BZF961 with or without Ritonavir in Patients Infected with Hepatitis C Virus: A Randomized, Multicenter Trial.

PURPOSE: Infection with hepatitis C virus is the leading cause of infectious disease mortality in the United States. BZF961 is a novel small molecule inhibitor of the hepatitis C virus NS3-4A protease. Here we present the results of a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled, multicentered study in treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis C virus genotype-1 infection. METHODS: Patients were enrolled sequentially in 2 parts and treated for 3days. BZF961 was administered as monotherapy (500mg BID for 3 days) or in combination with the cytochrome P450 3A4 inhibitor ritonavir to boost its exposure (BZF961 10, 20, or 50mg QD or BID). FINDINGS: BZF961 was safe and well tolerated in the patients studied with no serious adverse events. There were no appreciable differences in adverse events among patients who received BZF961, BZF961 with ritonavir, or placebo. There was a significant, clinically meaningful reduction in viral load from baseline in patients treated either with BZF961 500mg every 12hours alone or BZF961 50mg every 12hours in combination with ritonavir. Activity against the hepatitis C virus of the lower-dose regimens was apparent but more modest. There were no relevant changes from baseline viral loads in placebo-treated patients. IMPLICATIONS: Coadministration of ritonavir with BZF961 boosted BZF961 exposure (including Cmin, which is the clinically relevant parameter associated with antiviral activity) in a therapeutic range with less variability compared with BZF961 alone. For strategic reasons, BZF961 is no longer under development.

How Often Do Safety Signals Occur by Chance in First-in-Human Trials?

Clinicians working on first-in-human clinical studies need to be able to judge whether safety signals observed on an investigational drug were more likely to have occurred by chance or to have been caused by the drug. We retrospectively reviewed 84 Novartis studies including 1,234 healthy volunteers receiving placebo to determine the expected incidence of changes in commonly measured laboratory parameters and vital signs, in the absence of any active agent. We calculated the frequency of random incidence of safety signals, focusing on the liver, cardiovascular system, kidney, and pancreas. Using the liver enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALT) as an example, we illustrate how a predictive model can be used to determine the probability of a given subject to experience an elevation of ALT above the upper limit of the normal range under placebo, conditional on the characteristics of this subject and the study.

Estimation of the In Vivo MIC of Cipargamin in Uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum Malaria.

The MIC of an antimalarial drug for a particular infection is the drug level associated with a net parasite multiplication rate of one per asexual cycle. To ensure the cure of malaria, the MIC must be exceeded until all parasites have been eliminated. The development of highly sensitive and accurate PCR quantitation of low-density malaria parasitemia enables the prospective pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) characterization of antimalarial drug effects and now allows identification of the in vivo MIC. An adaptive design and a PK-PD modeling approach were used to determine prospectively the MIC of the new antimalarial cipargamin (KAE609) in adults with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in an open-label, dose-ranging phase 2a study. Vietnamese adults with acute P. falciparum malaria were allocated sequentially to treatment with a single 30-mg (n = 6), 20-mg (n = 5), 10-mg (n = 7), or 15-mg (n = 7) dose of cipargamin. Artemisinin-based combination therapy was given after parasite densities had fallen and then risen as cipargamin levels declined below the MIC but before a return of signs or symptoms. The rates of parasite clearance were dose dependent, with near saturation of the effect being seen at an adult dose of 30 mg. The developed PK-PD model accurately predicted the therapeutic responses in 23/25 patients. The predicted median in vivo MIC was 0.126 ng/ml (range, 0.038 to 0.803 ng/ml). Pharmacometric characterization of the relationship between antimalarial drug concentrations and parasite clearance rates following graded subtherapeutic antimalarial drug dosing is safe and provides a rational framework for dose finding in antimalarial drug development. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT01836458.).

Model averaging for treatment effect estimation in subgroups.

In many clinical trials, biological, pharmacological, or clinical information is used to define candidate subgroups of patients that might have a differential treatment effect. Once the trial results are available, interest will focus on subgroups with an increased treatment effect. Estimating a treatment effect for these groups, together with an adequate uncertainty statement is challenging, owing to the resulting "random high" / selection bias. In this paper, we will investigate Bayesian model averaging to address this problem. The general motivation for the use of model averaging is to realize that subgroup selection can be viewed as model selection, so that methods to deal with model selection uncertainty, such as model averaging, can be used also in this setting. Simulations are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. We illustrate it on an example early-phase clinical trial.

Antimalarial Activity of KAF156 in Falciparum and Vivax Malaria.

BACKGROUND: KAF156 belongs to a new class of antimalarial agents (imidazolopiperazines), with activity against asexual and sexual blood stages and the preerythrocytic liver stages of malarial parasites. METHODS: We conducted a phase 2, open-label, two-part study at five centers in Thailand and Vietnam to assess the antimalarial efficacy, safety, and pharmacokinetic profile of KAF156 in adults with acute Plasmodium vivax or P. falciparum malaria. Assessment of parasite clearance rates in cohorts of patients with vivax or falciparum malaria who were treated with multiple doses (400 mg once daily for 3 days) was followed by assessment of the cure rate at 28 days in a separate cohort of patients with falciparum malaria who received a single dose (800 mg). RESULTS: Median parasite clearance times were 45 hours (interquartile range, 42 to 48) in 10 patients with falciparum malaria and 24 hours (interquartile range, 20 to 30) in 10 patients with vivax malaria after treatment with the multiple-dose regimen and 49 hours (interquartile range, 42 to 54) in 21 patients with falciparum malaria after treatment with the single dose. Among the 21 patients who received the single dose and were followed for 28 days, 1 had reinfection and 7 had recrudescent infections (cure rate, 67%; 95% credible interval, 46 to 84). The mean (±SD) KAF156 terminal elimination half-life was 44.1±8.9 hours. There were no serious adverse events in this small study. The most common adverse events included sinus bradycardia, thrombocytopenia, hypokalemia, anemia, and hyperbilirubinemia. Vomiting of grade 2 or higher occurred in 2 patients, 1 of whom discontinued treatment because of repeated vomiting after receiving the single 800-mg dose. More adverse events were reported in the single-dose cohort, which had longer follow-up, than in the multiple-dose cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: KAF156 showed antimalarial activity without evident safety concerns in a small number of adults with uncomplicated P. vivax or P. falciparum malaria. (Funded by Novartis and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01753323 .).

Data on the oral CRTh2 antagonist QAW039 (fevipiprant) in patients with uncontrolled allergic asthma.

This article contains data on clinical endpoints (Peak Flow Expiratory Rate, fractional exhaled nitric oxide and total IgE serum levels) and plasma pharmacokinetic parameters concerning the use of the oral CRTh2 antagonist QAW039 (fevipiprant) in mild to moderate asthma patients. Information on experimental design and methods on how this data was obtained is also described. Further interpretation and discussion of this data can be found in the article "The oral CRTh2 antagonist QAW039 (fevipiprant): a phase II study in uncontrolled allergic asthma" (Erpenbeck et al., in press) [1].

The oral CRTh2 antagonist QAW039 (fevipiprant): A phase II study in uncontrolled allergic asthma.

BACKGROUND: There is an unmet medical need for allergic asthma patients who are uncontrolled on conventional therapies. The aim of this study was to collect efficacy and safety data for QAW039, an oral chemoattractant receptor-homologous molecule expressed on Th2 cells (CRTh2) receptor antagonist, for the treatment of asthma. METHODS: This was an exploratory phase II, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled multi-center study. Patients with mild-to-moderate uncontrolled allergic asthma (N = 170) were either without or weaned off inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) and long-acting ß-agonists (LABA) and randomized (1:1) to QAW039 (500 mg once daily) or to placebo for 28 days. RESULTS: Overall, 157 patients completed the study. There were no significant differences between QAW039 and placebo for trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) or Asthma control questionnaire (ACQ) in the total population. Subgroup analyses demonstrated that patients with a FEV1 <70% of predicted at baseline treated with QAW039 had significant improvement compared with placebo in trough FEV1 (QAW039- Placebo [Δ] = 207 mL; 90% confidence interval [CI]: 96, 319; P = 0.002) and ACQ7 (Δ = -0.41; 90%CI: -0.69, -0.13; P = 0.009). QAW039 reached a mean maximum concentration (Cmax) of 3440 ng/mL on day 28 at a median Tmax of 1 h (range 0.5-4 h). Most adverse events (AEs) were mild/moderate and balanced between both groups, with no serious AEs. CONCLUSIONS: In the general study population, no improvement in lung function was observed with QAW039. However, a subgroup analysis revealed that patients with greater severity of airflow limitation (FEV1 < 70%) had improved lung function and asthma control when treated with QAW039. QAW039 also demonstrated a favorable safety profile. TRIALS REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.govNCT01253603.

A First-in-Human Study To Assess the Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Monoclonal Antibodies against Human Cytomegalovirus in Healthy Volunteers.

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) can cause significant disease in immunocompromised patients and treatment options are limited by toxicities. CSJ148 is a combination of two anti-HCMV human monoclonal antibodies (LJP538 and LJP539) that bind to and inhibit the function of viral HCMV glycoprotein B (gB) and the pentameric complex, consisting of glycoproteins gH, gL, UL128, UL130, and UL131. Here, we evaluated the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of a single intravenous dose of LJP538 or LJP539 or their combination in healthy volunteers. Adverse events and laboratory abnormalities occurred sporadically with similar incidence between antibody and placebo groups and without any apparent relationship to dose. No subject who received antibody developed a hypersensitivity, infusion-related reaction or anti-drug antibodies. After intravenous administration, both LJP538 and LJP539 demonstrated typical human IgG1 pharmacokinetic properties, with slow clearances, limited volumes of distribution, and long terminal half-lives. The pharmacokinetic parameters were linear and dose proportional for both antibodies across the 50-fold range of doses evaluated in the study. There was no apparent impact on pharmacokinetics when the antibodies were administered alone or in combination. CSJ148 and the individual monoclonal antibodies were safe and well tolerated, with pharmacokinetics as expected for human immunoglobulin.

A first-in-human randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single- and multiple-ascending oral dose study of novel Imidazolopiperazine KAF156 to assess its safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics in healthy adult volunteers.

KAF156 belongs to a new class of antimalarial, the imidazolopiperazines, and is currently in clinical development for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. This first-in-human, single- and multiple-ascending-dose study in 70 healthy male volunteers determined the maximum oral dose of KAF156 tolerated by healthy adults and derived pharmacokinetic data (including preliminary food effect) to enable dose calculations for malaria patients. KAF156 was studied in single-dose cohorts (10 to 1,200 mg, including one 400-mg food effect cohort (4 to 10 subjects/cohort), and in multiple-dose cohorts (60 to 600 mg once daily for 3 days; 8 subjects/cohort). The follow-up period was 6 to 14 days after the last dose. KAF156 was tolerated, with self-limited mild to moderate gastrointestinal and neurological adverse events. In treated subjects after single doses, headache (n = 4; 11.1%), diarrhea (n = 3; 8.3%), dizziness (n = 3; 8.3%), and abdominal pain (n = 2; 5.6%) were the most common adverse events. Headache (n = 4; 16.7%), nausea (n = 3; 12.5%), upper respiratory tract infection (n = 3; 12.5%), and dizziness (n = 2; 8.3%) were the most common adverse events following multiple doses. KAF156 time to maximum concentration (Tmax) was between 1.0 and 6.0 h. Both the area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) and maximum concentration (Cmax) increased more than dose-proportionally in both single- and multiple-ascending-dose cohorts (terminal half-life, 42.5 to 70.7 h). There was no significant accumulation over 3-day repeated administration. The extent of absorption was not significantly affected by food at a single dose of 400 mg, while mean Cmax decreased from 778 ng/ml to 627 ng/ml and Tmax was delayed from a median of 3.0 h under fasting conditions to 6.0 h under fed conditions. Renal elimination is a minor route.

A first-in-human randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single- and multiple-ascending oral dose study of novel antimalarial Spiroindolone KAE609 (Cipargamin) to assess its safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics in healthy adult volunteers.

This first-in-human randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, ascending-single and -multiple oral dose study was designed to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics in healthy volunteers of KAE609 (cipargamin; formerly NITD609), a spiroindolone now in trials for malaria treatment. It was studied in single-dose cohorts (1 to 300 mg, including one 30-mg food effect cohort) with 4 to 10 subjects in each cohort and in multiple-dose cohorts (10 to 150 mg once daily for 3 days) with 8 subjects in each cohort. The follow-up period was 6 to 8 days post-last dose. Safety and pharmacokinetics were assessed at scheduled time points during the study. Systemic exposure in terms of the area under the concentration-time curve from 0 h extrapolated to infinity (AUC0-∞) increased in a dose-proportional manner over the dose range of 1 to 300 mg. The AUC from time zero to the time of the last quantifiable concentration (AUClast) and the maximum concentration of drug in plasma (Cmax) also increased in an approximately dose-proportional manner. When administered daily for 3 days, the accumulation ratio on day 3 (the AUC from time zero to 24 h postdosing [AUC0-24] on day 3/AUC0-24 on day 1) was in the range of 1.5 to 2 in the studied dose range (10 to 150 mg) and was consistent with an elimination half-life of around 24 h. Urine analysis for unchanged KAE609 revealed negligible amounts (≤0.01%) were excreted renally. The high fat food intake did not affect the extent of KAE609 absorption (AUC); however, the Cmax was reduced by around 27%. KAE609 was tolerated in this study, with transient gastrointestinal and genitourinary adverse events of mild to moderate intensity (semen discoloration, diarrhea, nausea and abdominal discomfort, dizziness and headache, catheter site hematoma). Gastrointestinal and genitourinary adverse events increased with rising doses.

Spiroindolone KAE609 for falciparum and vivax malaria.

BACKGROUND: KAE609 (cipargamin; formerly NITD609, Novartis Institute for Tropical Diseases) is a new synthetic antimalarial spiroindolone analogue with potent, dose-dependent antimalarial activity against asexual and sexual stages of Plasmodium falciparum. METHODS: We conducted a phase 2, open-label study at three centers in Thailand to assess the antimalarial efficacy, safety, and adverse-event profile of KAE609, at a dose of 30 mg per day for 3 days, in two sequential cohorts of adults with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria (10 patients) or P. falciparum malaria (11). The primary end point was the parasite clearance time. RESULTS: The median parasite clearance time was 12 hours in each cohort (interquartile range, 8 to 16 hours in patients with P. vivax malaria and 10 to 16 hours in those with P. falciparum malaria). The median half-lives for parasite clearance were 0.95 hours (range, 0.68 to 2.01; interquartile range, 0.85 to 1.14) in the patients with P. vivax malaria and 0.90 hours (range, 0.68 to 1.64; interquartile range, 0.78 to 1.07) in those with P. falciparum malaria. By comparison, only 19 of 5076 patients with P. falciparum malaria (<1%) who were treated with oral artesunate in Southeast Asia had a parasite clearance half-life of less than 1 hour. Adverse events were reported in 14 patients (67%), with nausea being the most common. The adverse events were generally mild and did not lead to any discontinuations of the drug. The mean terminal half-life for the elimination of KAE609 was 20.8 hours (range, 11.3 to 37.6), supporting a once-daily oral dosing regimen. CONCLUSIONS: KAE609, at dose of 30 mg daily for 3 days, cleared parasitemia rapidly in adults with uncomplicated P. vivax or P. falciparum malaria. (Funded by Novartis and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01524341.).

Group sequential enrichment design incorporating subgroup selection.

An important component of clinical trials in drug development is the analysis of treatment efficacy in patient subgroups (subpopulations). Because of concerns of multiplicity and of the small sample sizes often involved, such analyses can present substantial statistical challenges and may lead to misleading conclusions. As a confirmatory seamless phase II/III design, we propose an adaptive enrichment group sequential procedure whereby resources can be concentrated on subgroups most likely to respond to treatment. Stopping boundaries are defined through upper and lower spending functions. The procedure is presented in terms of the efficient score, enabling the analysis of normal, binary, or time-to-event data. It addresses the dilution effect by eliminating populations at the first stage that appear likely to derive no therapeutic benefit. It subsequently proceeds with the definitive assessment of treatment efficacy among the remaining pooled populations using a group sequential design. The procedure provides strong protection of familywise type I error rate, and we employ a bootstrap algorithm to obtain point and interval estimates that are adjusted for the selection bias. We give examples to demonstrate how the design is used. We make comparisons with adaptive two-stage combination test procedures and with a group sequential test that does not account for the presence of subgroups. Numerical results show that the procedure has high power to detect subgroup-specific effects and the use of multiple interim analysis points can lead to substantial sample size savings.